HX Our World: UK second wave fears are growing. So what does this mean?

Boris Johnson has warned of a second wave (Photo: Alberto Pezzali - Getty Images)

The warning signs are there, the Prime Minister says, of a second wave, and we should all be worried. John Bawltrey explains what this means politically, and within the government.

Ever since the beginning of lockdown in the UK, there's been a cabinet divide that was especially clear during the lockdown period. The doves, on one hand, were in favour of a health-first approach, even if it came at the expense of the economy. The hawks, on the other hand, were in favour of an approach that controlled the virus, but also compromised to mitigate its socio-economic consequences.

Doves include the Health Secretary Matt Hancock and the Prime Minister, who were long more cautious about easing the lockdown, and are now looking closely at the consequences of a 'second wave' in Europe, particularly at a worrying spike in countries such as Spain. Clearly, when it came with the sudden quarantine rule change, the government was prioritising health first and foremost, and there was a genuine need to control that before it got out of hand.

The other perspective is where the hawks, such as the Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, and Michael Gove come in. However, one must consider the very real consequences of overreacting. To say the economy was badly hit would be an understatement, which means that to take measures that are more than necessary runs the risk of inflicting even more suffering. The effects of this will clearly be devastating, and their voice in favour of a calm, proportionate response, will help reduce the worst effects of this virus, which are doubtless taking hold.

However, my fear is that, a government with a solely health-first mindset will simply be kicking the can down to road to come, and will only have to deal with the many social and economic problems when they bite, and bite they will. The income inequalities that have resulted in a heavy-handed approach hasn't prevented the many deaths from taking place, neither has it stemmed community transmission entirely. Even if it did, the effects would've been much worse, with a greater divide in our society, more livelihoods lost, and an economy in certain peril (as if it was doing well now).

The doves have won today, and they will win for as long as the very legitimate fears of a second wave last, but it will only be when the health situation improves that we will really see the calm before the storm. However, I genuinely do have hope that the UK government will remain level-headed.

John Bawltrey is Senior Editor of HX News

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